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Forecasts show China's solar build this year will be heavily outpaced by growth in its photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturing capacity, raising the prospect the country will export more solar panels despite a trade backlash in Europe and the U.S.
The sector’s problems began after a round of capacity expansion in 2021, after President Xi Jinping unveiled the country’s 2060 net-zero emission goals, and a target of at least 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind capacity by 2030. Companies, including those from outside the energy sector, rushed to produce solar panels.
For this year, analysts expect China to add 500-600 GW of PV module production capacity, a 60-70% increase, well above growth in solar projects. That would force manufacturers to export even more to markets such as Europe and the U.S., which doubled tariffs on cells used to make solar panels from 25% to 50%.
As of at least 2024, China has one third of the world's installed solar panel capacity. Most of China's solar power is generated within its western provinces and is transferred to other regions of the country.
Tan Youru, a solar analyst at BloombergNEF, said China's photovoltaic industry is currently grappling with demand-side challenges, particularly issues related to capacity absorption, which are expected to slow long-term growth. An employee works at the site of a photovoltaic power project in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, on Dec 14.
"Solar PV installations have maintained a quite high pace this year, and we had seen an average of over 18 GW of monthly installations this year in China till October," said Zhu Yicong, vice-president of renewables and power research at global consultancy Rystad Energy.
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